Are you a Bayesian or a Frequentist?
You have a coin that when flipped ends up head with probability p and ends up tail with probability 1-p. (The value of p is unknown.)
Trying to estimate p, you flip the coin 10 100 times. It ends up head 7 71 times. (Update: The correct numbers for the example to be instructional are 71 and 100, not 7 and 10 as I listed previously.)
Then you have to decide on the following event: "In the next two tosses we will get two heads in a row."
Would you bet that the event will happen or that it will not happen?
See the solution
1 comments:
Interesting. I'm not sure which kind this solution counts as:
the ML estimate of P is 7/10, and the square of that is .49, so no, I'd not bet on the event
or is this really about risk estimation :)
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